Iraq :Is There Any Hope Left?

Overview

Three years after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein , Iraq appears to be in the throes of civil war. Daily occurrences of insurgent attacks on coalition and government targets; Iraqi militias in recurring cross retaliation activities against civilians; and criminal activities perpetrated by organized crime syndicates are affecting the lives of each and every Iraqi civilian.

Shortages in food supplies, power and energy, and a general lack of economic opportunities are also a fact of life faced by Iraqis today. Two-hour queues at petrol stations are commonplace, in a land with so much oil resources underneath its very footprint. In some areas, power is turned on for only several hours in a day; sometimes for as little as two hours only. Unemployment hovers around 50-60%. The only consistent work available is with the police or the military; and quite often they become targets for insurgent attacks. The production and delivery of bread and other staple foodstuff may also occasionally be reduced owing to road restrictions or partial blockages imposed by the continuing conflict.

Iraq has a democratically elected parliament which has pushed for an agenda along the lines of their particular sectarian group, but has dragged its foot on items helpful in the pursuit of a nationalist agenda.

A government bureaucracy is already in place, but owing to de-Baathification which has cost it to lose the technocrats, there is a clear lack of administrative and technical capability by the people chosen to run the show. Those skilled enough for the challenge have decided to leave the country, having had enough with the current situation. Appointees to government ministries often view their positions as rewards, and consequently have no idea what else to do other than pay their department's salaries. Several government ministries have actually spent less than 20% of their capital budgets.

Sources of Revenue

Iraq 's primary source of revenue is oil. It accounts for seven tenths of the country's GDP, and nine tenths of government revenue. Although it's oil reserves are among the five biggest in the world, the infrastructure currently in place is in need of significant maintenance and repair. Considering that inspite of an extraction and delivery structure that is 'shot full of holes', it is still capable of delivering over two million barrels of oil per day. As such, the Iraqi oil industry is both an area of concern, as well as an area with so much growth potential ahead of it.

Political and Sectarian groupings

There are three major sectarian groups in Iraq . Although all three groups are integrated throughout the country, each one has dominance in certain geographic areas. The Kurds, in Northern Iraq ; the Shiites in Southern Iraq ; and the Sunnis in Central Iraq .

The three most influential Shiites are Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq , Muqtada Al Sadr, and the Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani.

Two important Sunni figures are Tarik Al Hashimi, and Sheikh Harith Al Dahri. Hashimi is opposed to the formation of autonomous regions, and in favor of the reversal of deBaathification, a redistribution of oil revenues based on population, and the removal of Shiite militia fighters from the Iraqi security forces.

The two most prominent Kurds are Massoud Barzani, who heads the Kurdish regional government, and Jalal Talabani, the President of Iraq.

What needs to be done

Economics. Improve the oil delivery infrastructure. Although it accounts for over 90 percent of the government revenue already, the current output is still below the government target of two and a half million barrels per day. This target has to be achieved in order to fund the necessary expenditures in healthcare, security and the beaurocracy. The current state of the infrastructure is that it is in need of repair, maintenance, and upgrading. A metering system should be put in place to increase accountability. A security structure also has to be set up to improve pipeline protection. This may be done by paying local tribes, who are already handling pipeline security in some areas, an amount based on oil throughput rather than simply a fixed amount.

Sharing of oil revenues. Oil revenues must accrue to the central government. Revenue sharing must be based on population. If the goal is to strengthen a nationalist agenda, control over current and future oil fields and resources must always reside in the central government.

Sectarian groupings. Although there are three major groupings in Iraq , their populations are mixed throughout the 18 provinces. Pursuing a three-state formula will not be a viable option. Therefore, a nationalist agenda must be pursued aggressively. For this to be viable, all three groups must increase dialogue, as well as pursue appropriate steps and confidence building measures.

Security. Composed of the police and the military, there must be a reorganization as well as a reorientation of the security forces in general. Weapons and equipment must be upgraded. A de-emphasis on counter insurgency training followed by a re-emphasis on crime-fighting, as well as a re-indoctrination “to protect and serve” the people must be done with regard to the training of the police force. Currently, the police force is organized to include the national police, the border police, and the police service. Only the police service should be maintained and kept true to its civilian character, while the national police and the border police, whose current operational acts are more allied with counter terrorism and counter insurgency, should be moved to the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense, where appropriate supervision can be exercised. As far as the military is concerned, the lack of equipment must be addressed by accelerating it's foreign military sales requests to the United States of America .

Diplomacy. Iraq sits in the middle of a region that may face consequential upheaval should instability reach alarming proportions in Iraq . As each neighboring country is a stakeholder, it will be to everyone's interest to support Iraq in its quest for stability, peace, and prosperity.

For Iraq , hope lies in dialogue and consensus building. And the sooner that everyone recognizes this, the better for Iraq and the entire region as well.