2020: Will China be the No 1 World Economy?

Mesopotamia and Egypt ruled the known world during pre-history. Later on, the Greeks and the Romans battled for supremacy. Following the middle ages, Spain and Portugal were both so powerful that they divided the globe in two and laid ownership on each half. Following the industrial revolution, Europe rose to power and shortly after that, with the rise of capitalism, America took the helm. It appears that America has held the position of World’s No 1 economy the longest and many believe that it will stay that way. However, many of the world’s leading economists believe that, if the United States is not careful, another country may wrestle economic power from their clutches.

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For many years, the large Asian country of China has been shrouded in mystery. It has isolated itself from the rest of the world yet, despite the silence and the veil of secrecy, China was not able to keep the country’s potential for growth and development completely hidden. Economists have always believed that China, once it has discovered it’s strength, and have tapped into their unlimited resources, would overtake the United States and one day be declared the World’s No. 1 economy. And the sleeping dragon, a moniker the country has always been known for, would rise from its long slumber.

In recent years, the world has witnessed China’s gradual rise into world supremacy. From being a silent player in world matters, China’s voice is now being heard. Not a weak whimper, like one asking for help, but loud and strong – commanding attention from everyone. Though still shrouded in mystery, no one can deny the immense power that is China. It seems that the sleeping dragon has finally awakened.

To see just how massive China’s plans for itself are, visit the Urban Planning Exhibition Hall at Shanghai and you will see a scaled model of what the government is envisioning for the city.

Many believe that by 2020, China would have established itself as the world’s No. 1 economy. They make this bold statement by closely evaluating how China has been developing over the years and by taking a closer look at what the intrinsic traits China has that can propel the country to the top.

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Experts say that one of the major factors which will influence the rise of China’s economy to No. 1 is due to the country’s rapidly growing military expenditure. It is estimated that by the year 2020, China would have spent a whopping 400billion on military improvements. Although this is merely half of what the US is expected to spend, it is still significantly larger than the budget allocated by other countries. The reason why this would nudge China upward is due to the fact that the country will rely on Chinese research and development and, due to low labor costs, majority (if not all) of the weapons will be manufactured in Chinese factories.

Following the massive military expenditure, economists believe that because China is one of the largest holders of foreign reserves, and because many Chinese businessmen want to convert their liquid assets into tangible assets by making several overseas purchases, whether in terms of bonds, properties or stocks; China will probably be one of the world’s most important trading partner by the year 2020.

Another reason why China would be on top by 2020 is by virtue of the country’s political power. The once silent country now has a veto in the United Nations Security Council and has a substantial share of votes in organizations where a country’s economic weight determines its voting power In addition China has been developing internal and external policies which promote their own interests.

Apart from these factors, many believe that the true power of China lies within. China is only opening up to the world, letting western influences come in and as such much of China’s culture has remained intact. Because of this, many are intrigued by the culture that has remained untouched for several hundreds of years. Tourism will help boost China’s economy. It is helping the country now, though only a few doors are open to foreigners, what more in 2020, when the doors are flung wide open?

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Finally, what will push China to be the No. 1 economy by the year 2020 is the self-belief of all the Chinese that they can reach that goal – that they can and will be a mega-power. Many Chinese believe that this century, is theirs for the taking.

Although China is on the right track to economic success, many experts believe that, if China is not able to keep certain factors in check, primarily social and political unrest, their progress would be hindered greatly. Another factor China should keep its eye on is the spread of corruption in the government. As it is, corruption is already rampant and if this remains unchecked, much will be flittered away before 2020.

If, indeed, China becomes the world’s no. 1 economy by the middle of this century, expect that it will come with a price. Even today, the physical environment at China is suffering – vast quantities of natural resources are being depleted every day. In 2005, Pan Yue of the Ministry of the Environment, speaking in an interview with Spiegel.de, said that the environment has suffered greatly. He cited that almost half of the water in seven of China’s largest rivers is not potable, and that five of the most polluted cities in the world are located in China. In addition, he said that ¼ of the Chinese population have no access to clean drinking water and that 1/3 of the urban population breathe polluted air.

The figures are alarming and the government should do something about it. It’s not enough that that China reaches the pinnacle of financial and economic success, China should also take the health and well-being of its population in consideration. After all, what good would the status of being World’s No. 1 economy be, if your own citizens are too ill to enjoy it?